If you’re an average, middle class individual or couple, chances are you aren’t saving nearly enough to provide a comfortable retirement for yourself. If you doubt it, play around with a retirement calculator.
I did some experimenting with Kiplinger’s Retirement Savings Calculator, plugging in some scenarios to see what turns up. I have to report that what you get when you use realistic assumptions is nothing at all like the rosy projections we see so often from the investment and retirement industry.
Here’s something I noticed: when you assume a double digit rate of return on your investments—10% or higher like the investment companies like to do—all things are possible. But use a more realistic number and things start to look a lot different.
I used truly middle class financial numbers for this exercise, not the high-end versions you’ll see profiled in Money Magazine and elsewhere. My fictitious couple are both 35 years old, earn a combined $75,000 per year, have $50,000 already stashed for retirement and plan to retire at 65, giving them 30 years to prepare.
The tool allows you to input information on your home, but I’ve decided to omit this since the sale of your home would require the purchase of another. Also, since the “Percentage of current income you want to replace” is recommended at 80%, at least one major expense will need to disappear from the couple’s budget, so we’ll assume they’ll stay in their home and pay off the mortgage.
WARNING: the numbers that come on the back end of this exercise are not pretty!
Gross income – you: $50,000
Gross income – spouse: $25,000
Years until you begin retirement: 30 (assume age 35 at the start)
Percentage of current income you want to replace: 80% (the recommended percentage)
Monthly Social Security income – you: $1000 (who knows where this will be in 30 years, so we’ll be conservative)
Monthly Social Security income – spouse: $500 (ditto)
Monthly retirement pension income: 0 (assuming no pension since most workers are no longer covered by defined benefit plans)
Will your pension include annual cost of living adjustments: NO
Current value of 401(k)’s, IRA’s and other retirement accounts: $50,000
Estimated average return on investments between now and retirement: 6% (we’re assuming a mix of stocks and fixed income investments)
Current market value of your home: N/A
Remaining mortgage at retirement: N/A
Cash you expect to use from home sale to buy a new house: N/A
Years you expect to live in retirement (Assume you will live until at least 90): 25 (retire at 65, live to 90, as recommended by the tool)
How much of your portfolio will be invested in stocks during your retirement? 50%
Any additional assets expected at retirement: 0 (This is a middle income couple, so let’s be conservative and figure that life and college costs for their children will eat up any excess savings)
The application assumes a 3% annual inflation rate and 2% annual home appreciation, which we’re ignoring since this couple won’t be selling their home for investment purposes.
You can put different numbers into the application and come up with very different output, but here’s what came out of our middle class couple using conservative assumptions:
Annual Retirement Income In Future Dollars: $145,800.00
Annual Soc. Sec. and Pension Benefits: $43,740.00
Nest-Egg Goal: $2,633,148.00
Projected Future Value of Current Savings: $287,000.00
How Much You Should Be Saving Each Month: $1,689.00
(This amount includes how much you are already
saving plus any employer match)
This couple will need to accumulate $2,633,148 over the next 30 years—and to do it on an annual income of $75,000. In order to do it, they’ll need to set aside $1,689 per month, or $20,268 per year. That’s well above 25% of their income! Do you think they can do it?
Now, here’s something interesting though perhaps not surprising; when you increase
“estimated average return on investments between now and retirement” from 6% to 8%, the monthly contribution required to reach the desired $2.6+ million nest egg drops to a more comfortable $1,108 per month, or $13,296.
Raise the expected rate of return to 10%, and the monthly contribution drops to very doable $634 per month, or $7,608 per year. That works out to be about 10% of our fictitious middle class couple’s annual income. Wow, that was easy; just change the assumption on one number, and the entire projection looks a whole lot better! But as tempting and attractive as this may be, is it achievable?
My own thought is that while assuming a 10% rate of return would certainly get you to your retirement goal, it may not be realistic. The stock market hasn’t provided such returns in the past ten years, and it seems that double digit performance might be more of a bonus than a reliable expectation. Should the return be that high, it’s entirely possible that offsetting factors—such as a higher inflation rate—might also be present, largely nullifying the higher return.
If you think that I’m being overly conservative with these numbers, it’s worth considering that we haven’t factored in predictable elements like non-housing debt or periods of extended unemployment. Then there are imponderables, like the future cost of healthcare…
Do you think that a 10% rate of return on investments over the next few decades is something we can rely on? If not, what would you recommend doing to meet the goal? What are you doing to prepare for your own retirement? Are you relying solely on accumulating and growing your retirement nest egg, or are you also looking in other directions?
(photo credit: Shutterstock)
This post is from FiscalGeek staff writer: Kevin Mercadante. I’m very excited to have him contributing to the site. You can find out more about him at his own blog OutOfYourRut.com.